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Welcome to the first issue of the TimingCube Weekly Update!

Before jumping into the Weekly Update proper, we'd like to dispel a number of worries expressed by subscribers after reading the recent survey results. These concerns could be summarized as "if it works, don't fix it", and to be perfectly clear, we do not intend to change our Model, period!

We will not increase the signal frequency or "pollute" the existing Model with other market indicators or indices. Our Model is, and will continue to be, purely mechanical and the signal is entirely computer generated. Just because we start publishing Weekly Updates does not mean that we let our personal opinions or emotions influence or dilute the signal in any way. The Weekly Updates will not provide market commentaries with predictions or explanations of why the market is doing what it is doing, there's plenty of that on CNBC.

What we do intend to achieve with the Weekly Updates is to be brief and informative in the hope of getting the discipline to spend a few minutes every week to refresh and increase our understanding of the Trend Timing Model, reduce apprehension, and reinforce our commitment to timing our way to wealth.

Weekly Updates will generally follow the same outline:

Signal Update – Our current signal position and performance since issued and since our first live signal
Market Update – What the market is doing and what it means to our current position
Trend Timing School – Short teachings on the Model and philosophy
FAQ of the Week – Answer to a frequently asked question

Here we go.

Signal Update

Current Signal Performance as of 09/26/2003
Signal Type	Trade Date	Return since issued
Buy	04/03/2003	+22.30%

Cumulative Returns since First TimingCube Live Signal (06/18/2001) as of 09/26/2003
Long Only	Long Only with Margin	Long & Short	Long & Short with Margin	Buy & Hold
+69.89%	+162.91%	+214.06%	+698.15%	-23.59%

Note: Performance and Returns above are obtained by using QQQ as the investment vehicle.

Market Update

This has been a challenging week. The market fell 4 days out of five and is down significantly since Tuesday's close. This has prompted several subscribers to ask us if we were worried about the current action and were about to issue a Sell signal.

First of all, we totally understand such reactions as we all feel nervous watching the market slide. That said, we have to put things in perspective. The market has had a huge run-up since late March and we cannot expect it to keep going up in a straight line. Corrections are to be expected and are ultimately healthy as they remove some of the speculative action. As of today's close, QQQ is down 6.33% from its closing high on September 18. This is well within the range of a normal correction. We experienced a similar downturn in late June and early August. From its closing high on July 15 to its close on August 8, QQQ was down 6.78%. Our Model did not issue a Sell signal back then. The same is true today.

Our Model is intended for long-term investors and is designed to act on major trend changes, not to time in and out of all the corrections along the way. So far, our Model has not budged, implying that the uptrend is still intact. If this week's action is just a normal correction, the worst thing we could do would be to send a Sell signal now, as buying would in fact be the right thing to do. As such, our Buy signal is still in effect. Because we never try to second-guess our Model, we will just stick with it and see what happens next.

Trend Timing School

The Trend

Our purely mechanical Model observes past and current market action to determine the general trend. This is computed every trading day after the market closes in New York (what market data we look at and what the Model reacts to will be subjects of future updates). As long-term investors, the trend we are interested in is where the market is likely headed in the next 3 to 6 months, which correlates with our average of 3 to 5 trades per year, and average signal duration of 3+ months. The underlying trend is either up or down. Even during periods when the market seems trendless, the underlying trend remains until the Model detects a change and a signal is issued. We are trend followers and we do not predict how long a trend will last or how strong it will be. No one can. The beauty of the Model is that we always know exactly where we stand. Although the signals are sometimes perceived as an event or a finite point in time because we issue an e-mail on the day a trend change is detected, as long as the trend is up we have a Buy signal, and as long as the trend is down we have a Sell signal. The Buy and Sell conditions remain in effect until the trend changes.

FAQ of the Week

Question: What if I don't want to receive the Weekly Update e-mail notification?

By default all active subscribers receive a weekly e-mail notification, and we strongly recommend you keep this preference. We believe that in addition to being a weekly reminder (and a sign that we are well and alive) the e-mail notification serves a useful purpose. The e-mail periodically tests for reliable delivery of messages and gives you satisfaction that you are ready and able to receive a signal. Periodically testing the complete path from us to you, including your e-mail address(es), your provider, your e-mail set-up, and any e-mail filtering that you or your provider may have installed is not a luxury. If you really do not want to receive these notifications you can opt-out in the "Preferences" section of the "My Profile" page on the Web site. Even if you opt-out of the e-mail notifications we recommend you make it a weekly habit to read the latest update on the subscriber's Weekly Updates page of the Web site.

Warm wishes and until next week.

The TimingCube Staff