Follow TimingCube » Follow TimingCube on Facebook Follow TimingCube on Twitter Follow TimingCube on LinkedIn
Turbo Model




What's new this week?

  • Today we begin a short survey about Managed Accounts to better understand your needs. We would be grateful if you could take a minute to answer the 3 questions located at the top of the "Current Signal" page
  • We posted a new "Financial Advisor" Magazine article on the "In the News" page

Signal Update
Current Signal Performance as of
Signal Type
Trade Date
Index
Return since issued
Nasdaq 100
Russell 2000
S&P 500
QQQ

Cumulative Returns since First TimingCube Live Signal () as of
Index
Long Only
Long Only
with
Margin
Long & Short
Long & Short
with
Margin
Buy & Hold
Nasdaq 100
Russell 2000
S&P 500
QQQ

Note: QQQ returns are included for continuity sake.

Back to the Top of the page


Market Update
Market indices took a beating this week and all finished at their lowest level of the year. Stubbornly high oil prices and a July employment report that fell way short of expectations were responsible for the damage. The Nasdaq Composite plunged deeper into bear market territory to close the week at 1776.89, effectively erasing all its gains since late August of last year! The Nasdaq 100 finished the week 6.08% lower. As for the Russell 2000, it lost 5.74%, while the S&P 500 shed 3.43%.

Of course, this is all good news to our subscribers, since we have had a Sell signal in effect since April 29. The week's action confirmed that we are on the right side of the trend and our Sell signal consequently remains active.

Back to the Top of the page


Trend Timing School
Selecting the right brokerage house

Last week we reviewed the few reasons someone might want to open an account at a pure mutual fund company like ProFunds and Rydex. No doubt the majority of investors, realizing they can trade the same exact mutual funds plus just about anything else under the sun at a brokerage firm, will opt for the greater flexibility and wider range of services. With the plethora of brokers to choose from, a shopper is likely to quickly reach information overload and lose track of which factors really matter and which don't.

Even those of us who have been perfectly happy with their full-service broker for a long time should at least take a fresh look at the options available today. Technology and the Internet in particular have caused radical changes in the brokerage industry over the last few years. It is a typical case of the old guard being caught snoozing while younger and nimbler challengers are eating their lunch. You do not often find an industry where some vendors shamelessly charge two, three or even six times as much as their competitors for the same or arguably lesser product.

Most brokerage selection guides begin with the traditional "Do you require a full-service broker or a discount broker?" question. Well, ours doesn't. We are admittedly biased towards the needs of Trend Timers and simply refuse to put-up with the exorbitant fees, trading restrictions and sub-par online trading facilities offered by the likes of Merrill Lynch, Salomon Smith Barney or Prudential. Yes, full-fledged financial institutions offer tremendous arrays of services from banking, credit and lending, estate planning, insurance, tax advice and, we almost forgot to mention them, complete investment services. There is nothing wrong with such services and you may well need all of them and even enjoy strolling down to the marble floored local branch office to visit with your personal broker behind his mahogany desk for extensive financial counseling. We just don't feel qualified to help you select a full-service route.

By definition Trend Timers are more in the no-frills do-it-yourself mold and since we know at all times what and when to buy or sell, it makes sense to do it as inexpensively as possible. Discount brokers used to be called online brokers but this has ceased to be a distinction. Even the "discount" appellation is getting fuzzy with early leaders such as Charles Schwab looking more and more like full-service financial institutions (their commissions and fees schedules certainly look the part!).
Due to space restrictions we limited our detailed comparison to six of the most popular brokers: Ameritrade, BrownCo, Charles Schwab, E*Trade, Fidelity, and Scottrade. Yes, there are many others (over a hundred), and even cheaper ones, but due to reliability and safety reasons you probably want to avoid any that aren't well established, do not handle very high transaction volumes or whose discounts seem a little too deep for comfort

With all of this in mind and the data in the table below at your finger tips, the selection process becomes a lot easier. Our requirements are quite simple:

  • We have to be able to open an account with the amount available. If less than $15,000 check the respective minimums
  • We must be able to trade online any of our preferred ETFs and/or mutual funds (see the "What to Trade" page). Not all brokers offer the ProFunds and Rydex fund families. You might also want to trade OTC Bulletin Board or "pink sheets" stocks or stocks listed on foreign exchanges, options, bonds or Certificates of Deposits (CDs) which not all brokers offer
  • We need to trade as frequently as we want, without penalties. Note that some of the firms, Charles Schwab and Fidelity for example, actively discourage frequent trading of mutual funds through excessive short-term redemption fees
  • Obtain the best price for the services we need

Our recommendation for people looking to simply and inexpensively implement the TimingCube strategies would be to go with an Ameritrade, BrownCo, or Scottrade. We have had good experiences with them and they offer robust services at competitive prices.

 
Minimum initial amount to open an account
Non-IRA
$2,000
$15,000
$10,000
$1,000
$2,500
$500
Margin
$2,000
$15,000
$10,000
$2,000
$2,500
$2,000
IRA
$1,000
$5,000
$10,000
None
$2,500
$500
Commissions for trading equities (online, market orders)
Fees
$10.99
$5
$29.95
$19.99
$29.95
$7
Up to
Unlimited
5,000 shares
1,000 shares
5,000 shares
$1,000 shares
Unlimited
Commissions for trading equities (broker-assisted, market orders)
Fees
$24.99
$17
$54.95
$64.99
$55
$17
Up to
Unlimited
5,000 shares
$2,499
5,000 shares
$100 shares
Unlimited
Commissions for trading no load mutual funds (online)
Fees
$17.99
$5
$0
$0
$0
$0
Commissions for trading no load mutual funds (broker-assisted)
Fees
$17.99
$19
$25
$45
$17
Extras
Margin rates
6.25%
4.75%
7.75%
8.99%
7.75%
5.70%
Short term
redemption fees
(mutual funds)
None
None
180 days or less $74.95 to $299
30 days or less
180 days or less
$75 to $250
90 days or less
$17 (see Note 3)
Account maintenance
fees
$15/QTR
if <$2,000
in account
None
None
$25/QTR
if <$5,000
in account
$50/Year
None
IRA
custodian or
service fee
None
None
$100/Year
$25/Year
None
None
Order
handling fee
None
None
$3
$3
$3
None
Local offices
No
Few
Yes
Few
Yes
Yes
Notes:    
  1. Depending on account type, trading frequency, and/or account balance your account will be subject to different amounts or be exempt of some fees
  2. TimingCube offers this information for your convenience but cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Make sure to inquire with the respective companies themselves before making any decision
  3. Scottrade waves the short term redemption fees for exchanges within the ProFunds or Rydex fund families

Back to the Top of the page


FAQ of the Week
Question: Can you shed some light on the market's next move?

Many investors, new subscribers in particular, express frustration at not knowing what or when the market's next move is going to be. The natural investor predisposition is to want to analyze, think, guess, and outsmart the system. With the recent gains, wouldn't it be logical to expect a market rebound, and therefore wouldn't it be clever to now liquidate our positions and take some profits?
It is certainly for you to decide, but this is not how Trend Timing is designed to work.

The black box nature of our Model understandably exacerbates the feeling of blindness when in fact it distinctively illuminates the path ahead. The truth is that we do not know how long the current trend is going to last or how strong it is going to be. No one can. The beauty of the Model is that it tells us in no uncertain terms what the predominant market trend is right now, and as long as this trend is in place the odds favor a continuation and not a reversal. No market goes straight up or straight down for any length of time. Yes, there will be pullbacks and corrections in the current trend, but following an urge to bail out at this stage could leave you stranded on the wrong side of the trend, a very bad place to be in a bear market.

After a week of great gains like we just experienced we all deserve to just sit back, relax, and enjoy being on the right side of the trend. Cheers!

Warm wishes and until next week.

The TimingCube Staff

Back to the Top of the page


Follow TimingCube » Follow TimingCube on Facebook Follow TimingCube on Twitter Follow TimingCube on LinkedIn

   Turbo Model
   Results
 
   Classic Model
  
   Site Map
   Glossary

TimingCube® is a registered trademark of Fraser Partners, LLC.
Disclaimer/Terms of Use    Privacy Policy
©2001- Fraser Partners, LLC
  All Rights Reserved.