Signal Type	Trade Date	Return since issued
		World	U.S.
			Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) Russell 2000 (IWM) S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Update

In similar fashion to last week, stocks tumbled Monday but managed to recover to finish little changed over the 5-day span. Indeed, the first session of the week proved to be challenging for equities, as investors sold heavily after the World Bank said that it expects the global economy to contract by 2.9% this year, causing the S&P 500 to shed 3.1% on the day. Despite a disappointing report on home sales, the bleeding stopped during the next session as stock prices stabilized ahead of a much-anticipated Fed meeting. Not surprisingly, the U.S. central bank announced Wednesday that it was leaving interest rates unchanged. Coupled with an unexpected jump in durable goods orders and a better-than-anticipated earnings report from software giant Oracle, the news helped the markets turn higher, with the Nasdaq Composite posting a 1.6% gain. The rally continued in earnest Thursday, as all major averages jumped over 2% on increased volume. Investors brushed aside news that weekly jobless claims came in worse than expected and were instead encouraged by an upward revision of the first quarter's GDP number. Stocks finished the week with a quiet session Friday that allowed them to retain their gains of the previous days. Volume for the Nasdaq Composite topped 3.5 billion shares, as the annual rebalancing of the Russell indexes distorted trading volume.

With modest losses of 0.16% and 0.22% respectively, the Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&P 500 (SPY) were almost unchanged on the week. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) did better, with a 0.58% weekly gain. Both the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 ETFs are located above their 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) while the S&P 500 ETF still lies in-between its two EMAs.

For its part, our World portfolio outperformed its U.S. counterparts this week with a 3.2% gain. The portfolio consists of the 5 top-ranked world ETFs as of June 19, which marked the beginning of the current 4-week holding period. Our current Buy signal remains in effect.

Trend Timing School

Signal readiness

First of all, please do not take the selection of this week's topic as a hint or subliminal indication that a signal is around the corner. One could well be, but since our Model does not provide any form of early warning, without a signal proximity indicator we do not know when it will come or what it will be, Cash or Sell. And we never make predictions. At little less than 3 months old, the current Buy may well be with us a lot longer, but we felt that a refresher on preparing for the next signal is always a topic of interest.

With a mechanical investment system such as our Trend Timing, timely execution of trades is a critical ingredient of success, not just because delays can negatively impact performance but because they often lead to not trading at all. With signals only issued infrequently, they generally come as a surprise and at inopportune times. They seldom come conveniently on a Friday evening and we may not have the luxury of an entire weekend to figure things out and get our act together. In addition to our natural hesitancy and nervousness at the prospect of executing important trades, a myriad of small issues can get in the way of getting our orders placed immediately. It is also well known that the more time passes after a signal is received, the harder it becomes to pull the trigger. For the many new customers for whom the next signal will be the first, and a fair number of others sitting in cash because they failed to follow the current Buy, a thorough review of the simple steps below is particularly important. Make sure to write everything down on paper, and always keep the paper with you when away from home.

Know when and how to get the signal.
The Model is run at the end of each trading day and if a new signal is issued, it will be posted on the Web site and on the "Signal by Phone" message by 7:00 pm ET that same day. Subscribers are also notified of the signal change via e-mail.

• Make sure in advance that you will receive, and recognize, our signal change e-mail. As a precaution you can use the "Test E-mail" function at the top of the "My Profile" page to verify end-to-end delivery
• If you are going to be away from the Internet or your e-mail for any length of time, make sure you write down the "Signal by Phone" access phone number and your personal access code which you find on the "My Profile" page. And do not forget to check the message daily
• If you have an e-mail enabled cell phone it is convenient to set that address as your alternate e-mail address to receive signals wherever you are
• Yet another option for those with internet access through a SmartPhone is to enter the https://www.timingcube.com/app/html?page=pda_login URL into your phone's browser and follow the usual login steps (see the "Can I access the current signal with my SmartPhone?" FAQ for requirements)

Know where your money is and how to access it.
This may sound silly, but with various accounts, maybe at diverse financial institutions as many of us have, it is highly doubtful we have all the pertinent details memorized. And you do not want to start searching through your filing system on the evening of a signal.

• Grab your little piece of paper and write down all the access information (Web site addresses, account numbers, user IDs and passwords) for every brokerage account you plan to trade
• Also capture the broker phone numbers, just in case their Web site is down or you run into problems
• Identify the moneys you earmark for the Trend Timing strategy and the securities you will need to sell on a Cash or Sell signal
• If you do not trade frequently we highly recommended that you practice some mock trades. Online systems have a way of changing frequently without notice, and the evening of a signal is not when you want to be learning the ropes

Pin down your strategies.
Much too frequently we leave such fundamental decisions till the last minute, when it is really too late to make well thought out choices. Do it now. Review the "Our Service" page in detail and decide.

• Which moneys in which accounts will follow the basic timing strategies? How much in "Long Only" and how much in "Long and Short"? You may elect to go short with only a fraction of the amount you go long with, or be forced to do so by limited choices in a 401(k) plan for example. How much leverage will you use? Remember that for the average investor, we do not recommend more than 20% on margin, because most of us cannot take the roller coaster ride higher levels of leverage never fail to deliver
• Which moneys follow the World approach? Of particular importance for a Sell signal, if you select a "Long and Short" strategy, is to decide what to short in advance

Select your specific investment vehicles.
With the many new investment choices which have appeared recently and the broadening of scope offered by the World approach, a comprehensive review of the "Our Service" page is well worth it.

• First decide what type of investment vehicles you want to use, ETFs, mutual funds and/or options. For example, the availability of new short and leveraged ETFs are making mutual funds and even options less attractive for many investors
• Select which assortment of index ETFs you will exploit for diversification and then pinpoint which securities to buy, exchange, sell or sell short. You should have every action written down together with the specific ticker symbols and estimated quantities, for every one of your accounts

Be mentally prepared to do it!
Last but not least, you need to pre-condition yourself to pull the trigger unconditionally. We know how hard it can be to trust a mechanical black box system. Still, the only way to successfully implement a trend following wealth building program is by not letting your emotions get in the way. No second-guessing, hesitation or cold feet allowed. Always remember that the alternative is to ride the market all the way down with buy and hold, as many unfortunate investors have done during the 2000-2002 years and the 2008 collapse. And if you honestly do not feel confident enough to do it unquestionably, you should consider getting help such as from the professionals at MARKETTREND Advisors who specialize in implementing the TimingCube strategies for their clients.

FAQ of the Week

Question: Why can a country that has been a recent laggard still be in the top 5?

This question really has to do with two distinct aspects of the World ETF Ranking service:

While the average trend duration for the TimingCube signals is between 3 and 4 months, the momentum which drives the different countries in the World ETF Ranking is mostly measured in much longer time intervals. Movements in and out of the ranking's top 5 occur rather slowly with, on average, only one of the 5 positions changing at every 4 week rebalancing. Short term price action has little relationship with the longer term momentum we focus on.

The second part of the answer has to do with volatility. Whenever there are pullbacks or corrections, the markets that were moving most forcefully upward are typically the ones retreating the most as well. This is the short-term effect of volatility, which translates into movements of higher amplitudes, in both directions. We have pointed out that the indexes at the top of the rankings most frequently are the ones with high volatility and risk (which is also why we do not encourage the use of margin with the World ETF Ranking).

Warm wishes and until next week.

The TimingCube Staff