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 |
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Current
Signal Performance as of
Signal
Type |
Trade
Date |
Index |
Return
since issued |
|
|
|
Nasdaq 100 |
|
Russell 2000 |
|
S&P 500 |
|
Cumulative
Returns since First TimingCube
Live Signal () as of
Index |
Long
Only
|
Long
Only
with
Margin |
Long
& Short |
Long
& Short
with
Margin |
Buy
& Hold |
Nasdaq 100 |
|
|
|
|
|
Russell 2000 |
|
|
|
|
|
S&P 500 |
|
|
|
|
|

Low trading
volume characterized this rather uneventful week, in which the
major indices moved slightly lower. Renewed hawkish statements
by Fed officials about the level of inflation unnerved investors
Monday and markets dropped as a result. The major indices recovered
Wednesday on positive earnings news. The gains did not last,
though, and were entirely erased by week end, as several economic
indicators showed that the economy might be weakening faster
than expected. For instance, the index of leading indicators
dropped 0.6% in May and weekly jobless claims increased by 11,000,
a number that was larger than anticipated. Such news again raised
fears that the Fed could go too far with its 2-year tightening
campaign. On that front, it should be noted that the Fed will
hold its next policy meeting on Wednesday, and that most economists
expect a 17th consecutive hike to 5.25% for the funds rate.
The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 respectively lost 0.75% and 0.56%
on the week. For its part, the Russell 2000
shed 0.42%. All three indices remain located under both their
mid-term 50-day and long-term 200-day exponential moving averages
(EMAs). There is no change as far as our Model is concerned
and our Sell signal
remains in effect.

Investment
vehicle smorgasbord
Over the last couple of years the type and range of investment
vehicles available to us investors has increased significantly,
and the type of products being introduced seem to fit perfectly
with our Trend Timing strategies. It is nice to see timing disciplines
we helped develop move, however slowly, from the marginal lunatic
fringe category to the ranks of acknowledged, if not yet mainstream.
We have kept you apprised of major new developments and offerings
as they occurred, and we must admit that by now the information
has become quite scattered and hard to find. Today we rectify
this and provide you with a complete and concise view of our
investment choices. This issue focuses specifically on listing
the primary index ETFs and long/short index mutual funds, both
domestic and international, to implement our strategies.
The meat of this article is in the tables, so we will keep the
words to a minimum. Allow us to highlight a few noteworthy additions.
ProShares. The dawn of short and leveraged ETFs.
You will notice in the "Investing with index ETFs"
table below that for the first time there are funds which offer
magnified (beta of 2) as well as short exposure to a market
index. These revolutionary ETFs are described in more detail
in this week's FAQ of the Week below. Not
only will these funds allow investors in certain retirement
plans to circumvent the ban on shorting and margin investing,
but they will allow any investor to bypass the complexities,
costs and some of the risks of margin investing (e.g. no margin
calls), or long/short index mutual fund investing.
The explosion of international ETFs.
The number of international choices, at least on the long side
of the market, has continued to expand. As most world markets
continue to be well correlated, our diversification choices
abound.
Direxion.
A new long/short and leveraged mutual fund contender.
Direxion, ex-Potomac funds, has metamorphosed itself into a
serious player in this highly specialized field. As you can
see in the "Investing with long/short index mutual funds"
table below, Direxion sports the second broadest list of funds
- after ProFunds, including highly leveraged (2.5 beta) as well
as many international selections.
Explaining beta.
With the onslaught of new funds and the varying levels of leverage
they achieve, we are having to evolve our terminology from the
simplistic match/double (1x/2x) to a beta coefficient. While
not identical to the beta coefficient used to measure volatility,
the beta listed in the "Investing with long/short index
mutual funds" table below tells you what the daily
objective of the fund is. A fund with a beta of 1 attempts to
match the daily performance of the index it tracks. A beta of
2 will attempt to double the performance of the index. Conversely,
a negative beta in our tables indicates that the daily objective
is the inverse of the index. With a beta of -2.5, for example,
a Direxion fund attempts to return 2.5 times the inverse of
the index. E.g., if the index goes down by 1%, the fund should
gains 2.5%.
Investing
with Index ETFs |
Index
Ticker |
Index
type |
Index
name |
Long
ETF Ticker |
Short
ETF Ticker |
 |
|
Large
Cap Dow Jones 30 |
Dow
Jones Industrials |
|
|
|
Wilshire
5000 |
Dow
Jones Wilshire 5000 |
|
--- |
|
Large
Cap Nasdaq 100 |
Nasdaq
100 |
|
|
|
Entire
Nasdaq |
Nasdaq
Composite |
|
--- |
|
Small
Cap Russell 2000 |
Russell
2000 |
|
--- |
|
Mid
Cap S&P 400 |
S&P
400 |
|
|
|
Large
Cap S&P 500 |
S&P
500 |
|
|
 |
|
Australia |
All
Ordinaries |
|
--- |
|
Austria |
ATX |
|
--- |
|
Brazil |
Bovespa |
|
--- |
|
Canada |
S&P/TSX
Composite |
|
--- |
|
France |
CAC
40 |
|
--- |
|
Germany |
DAX |
|
--- |
|
Hong
Kong |
Hang
Seng |
|
--- |
|
India |
BSE
30 |
|
--- |
|
Italy |
MIBTeL |
|
--- |
|
Japan |
NIKKEI
225 |
|
--- |
|
Malaysia |
KLSE
Composite |
|
--- |
|
Mexico |
IPC |
|
--- |
|
Singapore |
Straits
Times Index |
|
--- |
|
South
Korea |
Seoul
Composite |
|
--- |
|
Sweden |
Stockholm
General |
|
--- |
|
Switzerland |
SMI |
|
--- |
|
Taiwan |
TSEC
weighted index |
|
--- |
|
UK |
FTSE
100 |
|
--- |
Investing
with long/short index mutual funds |
Index |
Direxion |
ProFunds |
Rydex |
Tcker
/ Geography |
Index
Name |
Fund
Name |
Beta
|
Fund
Name |
Beta |
Fund
Name |
Beta |
 |
|
Dow
Jones Industrials |
|
1.25 |
|
2.0
-2.0 |
|
2.0
-2.0 |
|
Nasdaq
100 |
|
1.25
2.5
-2.5 |
|
1.0
-1.0
2.0
-2.0 |
|
1.0
-1.0
2.0
-2.0 |
|
Russell
2000 |
|
2.5
-2.5 |
|
1.0
-1.0
2.0
-2.0 |
|
1.5
-1.0
2.0
-2.0 |
|
S&P
400 |
|
2.5 |
|
1.0
2.0
-2.0 |
|
1.5
-1.0 |
|
S&P
500 |
|
-1.0
2.5
-2.5 |
|
1.0
-1.0
2.0
-2.0 |
|
1.5
-1.0
2.0
-2.0 |
 |
Developed Markets |
MSCI EAFE |
|
2.0
-2.0 |
|
2.0
-2.0 |
--- |
--- |
Emerging Markets |
Various |
|
2.0
-2.0 |
|
2.0
-2.0 |
--- |
--- |
Japan |
Various |
|
2.0 |
|
2.0
-2.0 |
|
1.25 |

Question:
What are ProShares ETFs?
When we reported that ProFunds had won SEC approval for 12
inverse and leveraged ETFs (see FAQ of the
Week in the May 26, 2006 Weekly Update), we promised to
update you on their availability. Well, they have arrived!
Eight ProShares funds started trading on the American Stock
Exchange (Amex) on Wednesday June 21, 2006.
ProShares Advisors LLC, managers of the funds and part of the
ProFunds group, have released the first 8 members of a family
of ETFs that are sure to revolutionize the industry. They are
the first examples of inverse and leveraged ETFs which make
it easier for investors to get short and magnified exposure
to a market index. In particular, these funds now make it possible
to implement most of the TimingCube
strategies within retirement accounts like IRAs without resorting
to the long/short and leveraged mutual funds. As we have seen
in recent trading, eliminating the one day lag associated with
the mutual funds, as well as lower costs, better index tracking
should make them welcome additions to our investment choices.
Four short ProShares funds:
- Short
QQQ ProShares (PSQ), inverse of the Nasdaq 100 Index
- Short
S&P 500 ProShares (SH), inverse of the S&P 500 Index
- Short
MidCap 400 ProShares (MYY), inverse of the S&P MidCap 400
Index
- Short
Dow 30 ProShares (DOG), inverse of the Dow Jones Industrial
Average
Four
leveraged ProShares funds:
- Ultra
QQQ ProShares (QLD), double the Nasdaq 100 Index
- Ultra
S&P 500 ProShares (SSO), double the S&P 500 Index
- Ultra
MidCap 400 ProShares (MVV), double the S&P MidCap 400 Index
- Ultra
Dow 30 ProShares (DDM), double the Dow Jones Industrial
Average
What
about the 4 missing funds? We understand that there are 4
double inverse funds (short and leveraged) of the same indices
which should follow shortly. As always, we will be sure to
keep you informed.
Warm
wishes and until next week.
The TimingCube
Staff
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Turbo Model
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Classic Model
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