Signal Type	Trade Date	Return since issued
		World	U.S.
			Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) Russell 2000 (IWM) S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Update

After an almost uninterrupted two-month run up, stocks relinquished a portion of their gains this week. Such a retreat was of course to be expected and is not only normal, but ultimately healthy as it removes some of the complacency that has built up in the markets. After hitting new year-highs last Friday, stocks posted modest losses during the week's first session as weakness among financials took its toll. Selling pressure intensified Tuesday following news that Standard & Poor's had downgraded Greece's debt rating to junk status. The main averages consequently fell all day, with the S&P 500 taking its biggest hit since early February to finish 2.3% in the red. The bleeding stopped Wednesday as stocks were able to close higher after the Federal Reserve announced that it was leaving interest rates unchanged. If the Fed's decision was widely expected, the Central Bank also noted that "the labor market is beginning to improve", which helped lift stocks late in the session. With fears over Greece's situation receding once more Thursday on news that European leaders and the IMF were ready to address the situation, optimism returned to the markets and stocks resumed their climb to yield the Nasdaq Composite a 1.6% daily gain. The Commerce Department said Friday morning that the GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.2% during the first quarter and that personal spending increased 3.6%, a number that was better than expected. The inability of the market to move higher on such positive economic news enticed participants to instead book profits, causing the main indexes to relinquish the prior day's gains. Weakness among financials was especially apparent all day after news broke that Goldman Sachs would face a federal criminal probe over its dealings during the sub-prime crisis. The S&P 500 retreated 1.7% on the day, therefore finishing the month on a sour note.

The S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) and Russell 2000 (IWM) respectively lost 2.46%, 2.53% and 3.35% over the five-day span. All three ETFs remain located above both their 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs).

For its part, our World portfolio posted a 3.10% loss this week. The portfolio consists of the 5 top-ranked world ETFs as of April 23, which marked the beginning of the current 4-week holding period.

Our current Buy signal remains in effect.

Trend Timing School

Staying ahead of retirement

When it comes down to investments and retirement readiness, Trend Timers are typically miles ahead of the average American, both for having chosen to save and for having selected a superior investment approach. Building, growing and keeping the wealth we will need during our older years is such an important, yet all too frequently ignored or neglected, aspect of our lives that we felt compelled to reinforce some basic principles. This short article cannot replace a good financial or tax advisor, nor is it a substitute for the many traditional sources of retirement-related advice such as retirement calculators or lists of best retirement spots.

For those (few) who keep their financial house in perfect order, we apologize in advance for there will be no revelation here. For the rest of us, the commentary may sound like a lot of common sense or motherhood and apple pie, but if we can convince even a few to begin saving, to increase their level of commitment, or to take action to invest for wealth, it will have been worth it.

Retirement investing involves two different phases, before and after retirement. The former is crucial because it is the accumulation phase when, during our earning years we should amass wealth through savings and growth. Since most of us will spend about three times longer working (about 45 years) than retired (about 15 years), we should all have plenty of time to save and to let compounding do its miracles, right?. Well, guess again.

Begin as early as possible
The rationale for accumulating wealth for our older days should be obvious to everyone. If nothing else, chances are that most of us will see smaller social security benefits by the time we retire (if any, for the younger ones) and we know that we will have to depend in larger part on our own savings. Human nature being what it is, most people do not really think or worry about their retirement at an early age. Very few ever do any serious financial planning and as a result, most of us only begin significant efforts to build a nest egg in our forties or fifties. Time wasted has to be the single biggest culprit for problematic retirement finances. In forty years time, a single $10,000 investment at an average yearly return of 15% grows to well over $2M. Let this serve as the "kick you know where" for those of us "too young to get started". And if you happen to know someone "too young to get started", the best service you can do is to teach them about the miracles of compounding.

Save as much as possible
The personal saving rate in the United States has fallen sharply over the last 20 years, and it is now very low when compared either to U.S. historical experience or to the savings behavior of many other industrialized countries. The U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the personal savings rate at less than 4% at the end 0f 2009. Japan and most European countries' saving rates range between 12% and 15%. There is serious evidence that a minimum of 10% of your disposable income should be a minimum savings rate. What's more, it is not that difficult to achieve if you set your mind to it. If you have trouble in this department we would highly recommend reading "The Richest Man in Babylon" by George S. Clason, a modern classic and great inspirational book on financial planning and personal wealth

.  The Richest Man in Babylon
A book by George S. Clason


Maximize contributions to qualified retirement plans
While our circumstances vary, we can all benefit from the qualified retirement accounts allowed under the current U.S. tax code. Even if our contributions are not pre-tax because we earn too much money, exploiting the yearly deposits to qualified plans should be a no-brainer. The benefits of growing and compounding your money tax-deferred are overwhelmingly attractive. In addition, contribution in many of the plans, such as a 401(k), can impart you with "free money" because of the participation of your employer.

Invest consistently and aggressively
Statistics such as those frequently published by Morningstar and others show that the vast majority of investors do not come close to achieving the average returns of the broad stock market. There are of course many reasons for this, but the most important ones are the level of commitment and consistency. If you have most of your assets sitting in cash or interest-bearing vehicles like bonds and treasuries, you should not be surprised that your overall yearly returns are lagging. If you have been burned by losing your hard-earned savings by holding all the way down during a bear market, you need a new tactic. If you keep chasing the hot tip, sector, or investment system, you are bound to be disappointed over and over. In order to achieve superior results you have to commit substantially all of your serious money to the stock market. To do that for the long-term, it has to be with a sustainable and manageable method that will not drive you crazy, and that will not lose half of your portfolio during every bear market. These are the motivators behind our Trend Timing approach which offers a long-term, all-weather system of investment.

Continue investing aggressively after retiring
You first have to know what you retirement age is, and most people wrongly assume it is 65. Since the Social Security Amendments signed by President Reagan in 1983, our retirement age has been rising. For persons born since 1938, the full retirement age is now closer to 66 or 67. Want to find what your full retirement age is? Click here. Most of us have been brainwashed into believing that as soon as we retire, our money needs to be yanked from the "risky" stock market and placed in "safe" interest-bearing instruments. While it is true that you will depend on withdrawals from your reserves for your living expenses after you retire, it would not be wise to switch everything to income generation. Most interest-bearing investments tend to trail inflation and cause your nest egg to shrink over time. Further, recently published figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that life expectancy for American men has reached a new all-time high 77.9 years at birth. If you are 65 today, your life expectancy is almost 19 years, which means odds are good that you will celebrate your 84^th birthday. Remembering the compounding discussion above, it is quite compelling to want to continue receiving superior returns for such a long period. Especially if instead of suffering losses during market downturns you are able to avoid them or even gain from them.

FAQ of the Week

Question: Can the TimingCube service help invest retirement money?

The answer is an emphatic yes. Moneys you set aside for your retirement are the funds that most necessitate a sound, disciplined, long-term, all-weather investment method. Retirement funds have a number of ideal characteristics as investment assets, namely that you are unlikely to withdraw and spend them in the short term and that gains and dividends are typically reinvested. Even if you are already retired and are living off the nest egg, you still have a long-term perspective for your retirement assets. In addition, if the funds are in a qualified retirement plan such as an IRA or 401(k), you further benefit from tax deferred growth. By fully reinvesting dividends and capital gains and not having to pay taxes until you start withdrawals, you unleash the full power of compounding.

The most common challenge in qualified retirement plans is finding available investment vehicles and in turn adapting to the most appropriate strategy. By law, the use of short-selling and margin trading are prohibited in retirement accounts. If your IRA account is with a large financial services or brokerage firm you most likely have access to ETFs or mutual funds that track broad market indices or their opposites, with or without leverage; as well as funds which track international indexes. These funds should allow you to fully implement any of our strategies you decide is right for you. Even if your brokerage firm or 401(k) administrator offers only a few choices there typically is at least one index fund suitable to implement the Long Only strategy. While not the most aggressive strategy, Long Only should still let your retirement capital substantially outperform Buy and Hold.

Warm wishes and until next week.

The TimingCube Staff