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What's
new this week?
Today, Friday
12, 2010, we are launching a new feature that brings a touch of humor
we hope you will enjoy: the TimingCube
financial cartoon of the week. You can view our first cartoon
by clicking on the corresponding link located just above the "Market
Update" section.
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Signal Update |
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Current
Signal Performance as of
Signal
Type |
Trade
Date |
Return
since issued |
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World |
U.S. |
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Nasdaq
100
(QQQQ)
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Russell
2000
(IWM)
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S&P
500
(SPY)
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Market Update |
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Stocks continued their climb this week as the current rally shows no sign of abating, sending the S&P 500 to its highest weekly close since September 2008. After a quiet first session that left the major indexes little changed Monday, stocks were able to add to their recent gains Tuesday despite a bout of late selling, with the Nasdaq Composite finishing 0.4% higher. Buoyed by semiconductor and biotech stocks, the index added another 0.8% during the next session. Equities were also lifted by positive economic news, as a decline in inventory levels pointed to renewed demand while data from wholesalers showed an increase in sales for the tenth consecutive month. Stocks then faced early pressure Thursday and remained in the red for most of the session, but a last-hour rally allowed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to turn around and gain another 0.4%. This clearly shows that market participants are reluctant to sell and instead take advantage of price dips to add to their positions. An unexpected increase in February retail sales was counterbalanced by a disappointing reading on consumer confidence Friday. The mixed news left stocks directionless, resulting in a flat market by day's end. Yet, it was another strong week for equities, as illustrated by the fact that the Nasdaq 100 has now risen for thirteen consecutive sessions.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&P 500 (SPY) respectively gained 1.98%, 1.65% and 1.06% over the five-day span. All three ETFs remain located above both their 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs).
For its part, our World portfolio posted a
0.89% gain this
week. The portfolio consists of the 5 top-ranked world ETFs
as of February 26, which marked the beginning of the current
4-week holding period.
Our current Buy
signal remains in effect.

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Trend Timing School |
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Turbo-charge
your signal gains.
Our trend-following investment philosophy consists of two major
tenets:
- Minimize
losses
- Maximize
gains
Sounds silly, of course. Everyone wants to minimize losses and
maximize gains. Value investors attempt to accomplish this by
purchasing fundamentally attractive stocks at hopefully low
prices and selling them when their presumed "full"
value is reached. We find it far easier to achieve our objectives
by focusing on broader market and sector trends rather than
combing through the market for specific stocks that may or may
not someday attract investor attention. By looking at trends,
we are already sifting the market down to the areas that are
gaining investor enthusiasm; we don't have to wonder what will
cause investors to come aboard our ship. We go with the market's
flow.
We attack the first tenet - minimize losses - by adhering to
our tried and true market signal. The Buy,
Sell, or Cash
signal that our model generates. This signal prevents us from
the most damaging of investment mistakes - suffering through
bear markets where our hard-earned capital can be fairly quickly
cut in half. Even if our signal is wrong, we have hard-coded
stop losses to limit the damage. We MUST minimize
losses in order to live to play another day; in order to build
our wealth rather than spin our wheels recouping prior losses.
With a fresh Buy
signal, it's appropriate to focus on the second tenet - how
to maximize our gains. Our core TimingCube
strategy suggests that investors can spread their money across
the three major U.S. indexes - the Nasdaq 100, Russell 200
and S&P 500. By doing so, you are getting a huge amount of diversification
and effectively riding the market's wave.
However, you can do better. Our World Index
Rankings offer a simple way to outperform the basic indexes.
We recommend investing in the top 5 ETFs on the list as we have
found this approach provides the best returns. However, some
investors will be more comfortable spreading their investment
across 10 or more of the top-ranked choices to get a little
less volatility.
Another way to maximize gains is to look at the recommendations
of our sister publication, ETFTide.
The Tide takes a broader view of the market going beyond country
ETFs and broad indexes to include sectors, currencies, and bond
ETFs. Charts 1 and 2 display
the power of recent ETFTide
recommendations. The Steel ETF
shown in Chart 1 has routinely shot up by 100+
percentage points during its uptrends. While the Retail ETF
in Chart 2 exhibits more modest gains, it also
far surpasses the gains of the broader market. With markets
now quickly returning to a normal state, ETFTide
offers an easy way to find superior gains during market uptrends.
Chart 1: Recent SLX Trend

Chart 2: Recent XRT Trend

Finally, we return to a prior weekly update for an idea to improve
returns - equally-weighted ETFs. These vehicles leverage the
power of mid- and small-cap stocks to outperform the broader
indexes. Chart 3 shows how an investor can
combine a basic sector rotation approach with equal-weighted
ETFs for strong gains. The basic sector rotation guide leads
investors to consumer discretionary stocks in the earlier phases
of a market and economic recovery. The chart displays the substantial
gains offered by equal-weight when compared to both the market
as well as to the more traditionally weighted ETF, in this case
the consumer discretionary "spider" ETF.
Chart 3: Gains offered by equal-weight
With a new Buy signal,
our main step is to take action and return our funds to the
market. Our second consideration is how we can best profit from
the signal. Investors have a wide variety of risk tolerances
and objectives. We hope the ideas offered above give you a good
palette of choices from which to build a portfolio that maximizes
your gains. You can rest assured that our market signal will
take care of the first tenet!

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FAQ of the Week |
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Question:
How do I get access to your ETFTide
recommendations?
The ETFTide
service outperformed the broad market by 3x during the last
cyclical bull market, while losing only half as much during
the market crash. We believe this performance compares quite
favorably to almost any mutual fund or other investment approach
and makes ETFTide an ideal complement to TimingCube
as the two services focus on different strategies that provide
for good overall diversification. ETFTide
underperformed in 2009 as it was slow to adjust to the dramatic
rebound in the market. But we view that underperformance as
a rare event and expect the typical outperformance to resume
in 2010. The ETFTide
website, http:/www.etftide.com,
can provide all the information you need to get started.
Warm wishes and until next week.
The TimingCube
Staff
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