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Signal Update |
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Current
Signal Performance as of
Signal
Type |
Trade
Date |
Return
since issued |
|
|
|
World |
U.S. |
|
Nasdaq
100
(QQQQ)
|
Russell
2000
(IWM)
|
S&P
500
(SPY)
|
|

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Market Update |
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Stocks posted
strong gains across the board this week, sending the Nasdaq
Composite
and the Russell 2000
to their highest weekly close since September 2008. As a result
of the sharp recovery that followed the steep January pullback,
our Model issued a new Buy
signal after the close Monday.
Indeed, stocks performed strongly during the first session of
the week, allowing the Nasdaq Composite to post a daily gain
of 1.6% on news that Europe would coordinate fiscal measures
to help Greece overcome its debt problems. Strong semiconductor
sales data for January also provided a boost to stocks. The
major averages were able to build onto their gains to rise modestly
over the next two sessions, supported by the announcement of
several mergers and acquisitions deals and Greece unveiling
a budget-reduction plan. A decrease in weekly jobless claims
and better-than-expected retail sales data helped stocks rise
again Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite finishing 0.5% higher.
Friday morning, the Labor Department released a positive February
employment report: only 36,000 workers were laid off last month,
much less than the 75,000 economists anticipated, while the
unemployment rate remained steady at 9.7%. Investors cheered
the news and their renewed buying yielded all major indexes
gains in excess of 1% on heavy volume to cap a solid week for
the market.
The Russell 2000 (IWM), Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) and S&P 500 (SPY)
respectively gained 6.08%, 3.75% and 3.17% over the five-day
span. All three ETFs remain located above both their 50-day
and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs).
For its part, our World portfolio posted a
5.96% gain this
week. The portfolio consists of the 5 top-ranked world ETFs
as of February 26, which marked the beginning of the current
4-week holding period.
We now have a Buy
signal in effect.

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Trend Timing School |
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Human
psychology
The tools we use, such as trend following and shorting, by reducing
our real market risk help us keep our emotions in check, and
in turn allow us to stick with our wealth building plan for
the long run. This brings us today to this frequently neglected
but most important aspect of successful investing: the human
factor.
As investors we often tend to focus on the news, the economic
outlook, trying to figure out what the market is going to do
and what the best investment might be. Yet, study after study
has demonstrated that the most important investment success
factor is not having the optimum strategy, perfectly timed signals,
or selecting the best investments, but rather how consistently
you implement your strategy and how long you stick to it.
The root of the problem is that we are emotional and sensitive
creatures. Everyday we are flooded with news and information,
and we get exposed to the opinions of many. Friends, co-workers,
cab drivers and TV talking heads all tell us what they believe
the market is going to do and why, and what the best investment
is. Our entire upbringing and education trains us to seek answers
and direction. It turns out that, however analytical, educated
and informed our approach is, our opinions and decisions are
frequently influenced by our emotions. Most of us have trouble
balancing the two main emotions involved in investing: greed
and fear. In investing, it is well known that emotions are your
worst enemy, unless you use them as contrary indicators.
Individual investors are notorious for their emotional trading
tendencies, for "chasing performance", strategy hopping, buying
when the going is good (prices are high) and selling when the
going gets tough (prices are low).
A landmark 1994 study by Morningstar, followed by many similar
ones since then, demonstrated that individual investors lose
money on even the best mutual funds. It showed that while the
average growth stock fund gained 12.5% per year over the study's
5 year period, the average investor in those same funds lost
2.2% per year. Why such a huge difference? Because of human
psychology and the fact that people are highly emotional creatures,
most investors cannot bring themselves to simply buy low and
sell high. These findings also underscore the fact that there
are very few buy and hold investors, because most end-up getting
jerked in and out of the markets at the worst possible times.
A founding principle of TimingCube
is that we can all be better investors and make fewer bad decisions
if we take a less subjective approach to investing. We firmly
believe in the merits of a mechanical system in large part for
removing emotions from the equation. Our approach is 100% mechanical,
rigorously unemotional, and leaves no room for analysis or interpretation
of data or news events. Opinions and rationalizations, however
educated and inspired they may be, play no part in determining
the market trend. The market and our directional model tell
us what the trend is. During Buy
signals, the momentum model points to the strongest markets
to be in. At all times we know exactly on which side of the
market and in which investment we should be. Eliminating emotions
from the decision process to determine what to invest in and
when is 50% of the battle.
The other key success factor is reliable implementation over
the long term. With any trend following system, even one which
trades as infrequently as ours does, one must be able to monitor
the signals and trade in a timely fashion. Backtesting clearly
shows how dramatically performance drops off if the recommendations
are not followed promptly or accurately. You can only win if
you participate.
We firmly believe that the biggest risk most investors face
is the missed opportunity of achieving their life's wealth building
dreams. Too many do not have the discipline, are afraid to start
investing, fall off the wagon, or constantly chase the next
best investment advice. From years of experience we know that
most investors find it a lot easier to stick with an investment
program for the long run and resist the temptation we all have
at times to second-guess and outsmart the system when they gain
a better understanding of the stock market, the Trend Timing
approach and philosophy, as well as the emotional pitfalls they
are likely to encounter along the way. Accordingly, providing
you, our subscribers, with unbiased mechanical guidance, education,
tools and the emotional support system that helps you remain
firmly committed is our first and foremost priority. And while
it takes discipline and practice to turn off our emotions and
opinions about what the market will be or should be doing, adopting
and consistently implementing the mechanical strategy can provide
real peace of mind.
We understand that there are circumstances which might prevent
you from staying on top of the signals from time to time, such
as traveling or being away from the Internet and e-mail for
prolonged periods of time. Maybe you do not want the responsibility
of monitoring and trading, or you lack the commitment, confidence,
courage, decisiveness or discipline to follow the system. For
anyone afflicted with one or more of these symptoms, help is
available as explained in the FAQ of the Week
below.

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FAQ of the Week |
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Question:
What if I procrastinate and fail to follow your signals?
Although the TimingCube
system is simple to implement and requires very little trading,
there are a million things which can get in the way of actually
doing it. But if you do not follow the trends faithfully over
the long term, you are exposed to the vagaries of the market,
and if you do not seek the strongest world markets you are unlikely
to achieve superior returns over the long term.
Maybe you elected to "watch" for a while, before you decide
to jump in and commit your funds. Or maybe you started but got
stung by some losses when Sell
signals failed to develop into larger corrections. You missed
the last signal, or like many of us, you simply procrastinate.
There are many excuses and even valid reasons for sitting on
the sidelines or worse, being long the market in what could
be the beginning of a major downturn, but the bottom line is
that as long as you remain un-committed to the strategy you
are exposed and you are not reaping the potential benefits of
your subscription.
If you find yourself in such a situation or if you do not feel
you are quite ready for the do-it-yourself approach, our friends,
the professionals at MARKETTREND Advisors can take care of the heavy lifting for you with
a managed account. MARKETTREND Advisors is a full service investment advisory firm serving
individual investors and they specialize in implementing the
TimingCube
strategies, amongst others. Should you become a client of theirs,
your TimingCube
subscription becomes complimentary and remains free for as long
as you are a MARKETTREND Advisors client.
You can find all the details about MarketTrend investing and
managed accounts by going directly to their Web site at www.MarketTrendAdvisors.com
or by contacting them at:
MarketTrend Advisors, Ltd.
3720 Gattis School Road #800-214
Round Rock, TX 78664
Phone: (512) 255-8722
Fax: (512) 255-8732
E-mail: info@MarketTrendAdvisors.com
Business hours: Monday through Friday 8:00am
to 5:00pm Central Standard Time
Warm wishes and until next week.
The TimingCube
Staff
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