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Turbo Model




Signal Update
Current Signal Performance as of
Signal Type
Trade Date
Index
Return since issued
Nasdaq 100
Russell 2000
S&P 500
QQQQ

Cumulative Returns since First TimingCube Live Signal () as of
Index
Long Only
Long Only
with
Margin
Long & Short
Long & Short
with
Margin
Buy & Hold
Nasdaq 100
Russell 2000
S&P 500
QQQQ

Note: QQQQ returns are included for continuity sake.

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Market Update
After a good start to the week, stocks moved lower to finish on a down note. Most of the damage occurred on the Nasdaq 100 , as investors unloaded large-cap tech stocks. This is illustrated by EBay, which tumbled following a worse-than-expected earnings report. For the week, the Nasdaq 100 lost 3.68%. Both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 did better, posting smaller losses of 1.41% and 1.04%, respectively. Let's try to put in perspective where we stand now: technically, none of the three indices above is in correction territory yet, defined as a drop of more than 10% from the top. In fact, the S&P 500 is only down 3.76% from its December 30, 2004 closing high. That said, this week's negative action has brought our Model closer to a Sell signal than it has been in months. Our active Buy signal remains in effect for the time being, but unless markets rebound soon, it is likely that a Sell signal will be issued shortly.

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Trend Timing School
Options basics and terminology

The preferred investment vehicles to implement the TimingCube strategies have been index ETFs, with bull/bear mutual funds as an alternative for retirement accounts where shorting and margin trading are not permitted. Because of performance shortcomings of the mutual funds (see the December 10 and December 17, 2004 Trend Timing School editorials on this topic) we decided to introduce options as a potential alternative investment tool for some subscribers to consider. We say "some subscribers" because options are complex securities, can be very risky, and should only be used by fully knowledgeable and sophisticated investors or professionals.

Options trading is an entirely different world complete with its markets, players, rules, strategies, and even its own jargon. With a topic this broad you might well imagine that one single article will barely begin to address the subject matter. We apologize in advance to experienced option traders and, to a lesser degree, to impatient readers who will just have to wait through a number of episodes for the plot to develop fully. Here is how we envision the upcoming "options curriculum":

  • Options basics and terminology (this article)
  • Simple option transactions and strategies
  • How to simulate short selling with options
  • How to simulate margin trading with options
  • Using options to generate cash
  • Using options to reduce risk
  • A blend of strategies for Trend Timers

Without further ado, let's begin with options basics and terminology.

What are options? Unlike stock securities which convey ownership or "equity" participation in a company, an option security is a contract that conveys a right to either buy or sell the financial instrument on which it is based at a fixed exercise price, before the expiration date. There are regular options that have expiration dates of up to 9 months after they are issued and there are long-term options called LEAPS with expiration dates of up to three years. Options are also frequently described as derivative securities because their value is at least in part derived from the value of the underlying security. In the U.S., options are regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and all options and all exchanges work though the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC). There are many different styles of exchange-listed options around the world but the only ones we will concern ourselves with are the so-called standardized "American-style" traded on U.S. exchanges.

Underlying security. For our purposes the security on which an equity option is based can be an individual stock, ETF, or even a market index. There are option-type contracts for just about anything under the sun, such as commodities, but these are generally based on futures and are not pertinent to our option investment activities.

Two option types. The two standard equity option types are calls and puts. A call option contract conveys to its owner the right (not the obligation) to buy 100 shares of the underlying equity, at a set price per share (the "exercise price" or "strike price"), for a predetermined amount of time, no later than the expiration date. The buyer, or holder, of the call could be betting that before time expires, the shares of the underlying will be worth more than the strike price of the call option, but as you will discover, the motivations for an investor to either purchase or write an option can be many. Conversely a put conveys the right to sell 100 shares of the underlying, at a set price per share, for a predetermined amount of time. You buy an option contract from two types of sellers: either a person that bought an option in the past and now wants to close out that position, or a person who chooses to create, or write it. Where the buyer of the option has a right to exercise, the writer of the option has the obligation to fulfill its terms if called upon to do so.

Long and short positions. In options terminology the words long and short have a very different meaning than with equities. If you buy and own an option, call or put, you are said to be long the contract. It does not mean you have a bullish market position. With options, the word short means that you have written a call or put option, that you are short that contract and have the obligation to fulfill its terms if you are assigned an exercise notice.

Sell, exercise, or expire. When you are long an option contract (you bought it and you own it), you have the right to either exercise the option (by buying the underlying shares if a call, or selling the underlying shares if a put), sell the option in the open marketplace (if it has value and there is a bid price to buy the option), or to let it expire unexercised.

Why use options? There are generally three objectives for contemplating the use of options investment strategies: portfolio protection, income generation, and speculation/leverage. The driving force for Trend Timers is primarily as an alternative to bull/bear mutual funds in retirement accounts. As it turns out, the strategies we developed specifically to work with the TimingCube strategies can combine all three objectives of options.

Requirements:

  • Know exactly what you are doing and getting into or do not touch options with a ten foot pole. We think very highly of our Trend Timing School articles but they by themselves do not constitute complete or sufficient education. See the Additional Resources section below for good educational sources
  • Options account. You generally need to get your broker to approve options trading in your account(s) by submitting an Options Request Form, or one by a similar name. The good news is that this can be done in just about any regular or qualified retirement account
  • Keeping your head on your shoulders and your feet on the ground. Options are very versatile and sophisticated securities which could be used to create extreme risk where one not only stands to lose the entire invested capital but more
  • Stay on top of your options. Unlike the "buy and forget" (until the next signal) ETF or mutual fund investing we normally do, options require attention and management. For example, if you let the expiration date sneak up on you, the contract will expire unexercised and worthless.

Additional resources: As we said at the beginning, the best course of action is education. If you are not able or willing to invest sufficient time and effort on education we respectfully suggest that you stay away from options altogether, or use a professional. As registered investment advisors our colleagues at MARKETTREND ADVISORS can implement options strategies in managed accounts for you. If you prefer the self-education route, here are good places to start.

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FAQ of the Week
Question: How can you show QQQQ results prior to its inception on March 10, 1999?

While admiring the full splendor of the QQQQ TimingCube Results window, some perspicacious subscribers noticed that it goes all the way back to January 1989, the date from which we started our backtesting, long before QQQ, as it was called back then, started trading. When TimingCube began operations in 2001, QQQ was our primary investment focus and therefore we wanted to take backtested results as far back as we had been able to take our Model. For dates prior to March 10, 1999, we took the slight liberty to substitute a very close relative: the Nasdaq 100 Index itself, modified by their ratio on inception date. Since the QQQ has tracked the Nasdaq 100 very tightly we feel that our approach presents a close and fair approximation of how QQQ would have performed had it been around back then.

Warm wishes and until next week.

The TimingCube Staff

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