TimingCube - How our Model and single signal capture multiple indices - single signal,model,multiple indices,broad market trend,frequent trading

January 16, 2004 Update

Welcome to the new expanded TimingCube service and Web site! There are too many enhancements to describe here in detail; instead, we recommend you take the short which highlights salient new features. In addition, we are dedicating most of this Weekly Update to the new site and some of the related questions you may have.

Thank you for the many comments - mostly kind and complimentary - we have received since going live with the expanded Web site. We hope you enjoy the expanded service and new Web site functionality, and as always, we welcome your comments and feedback.

Signal Update

Current Signal Performance as of 01/16/2004

Signal Type	Trade Date	Index	Return since issued
Buy	04/03/2003	Nasdaq 100	+45.13%
		Russell 2000	+56.90%
		S&P 500	+29.25%
		QQQ	+44.78%

Cumulative Returns since First TimingCube Live Signal (06/18/2001) as of 01/16/2004

Index	Long Only	Long Only with Margin	Long & Short	Long & Short with Margin	Buy & Hold
Nasdaq 100	+100.85%	+243.51%	+270.21%	+937.63%	-9.25%
Russell 2000	+102.73%	+244.94%	+207.61%	+635.92%	+19.32%
S&P 500	+46.25%	+101.71%	+114.79%	+315.96%	-6.20%
QQQ	+101.13%	+244.68%	+271.80%	+946.38%	-9.55%

Note: QQQ returns are included for continuity sake.

Market Update

Emboldened by more good economic news and strong earnings reports, Markets powered ahead again this week. The Nasdaq Composite has now finished higher for 6 weeks in a row, clearly restablishing its leadership. There is no question that momentum is quite strong at the moment. For the week, the Nasdaq 100 ended higher by 2.18%, the Russell 2000 by 2.64%, the S&P 500 by 1.60%, while QQQ gained 2.23%.

The week's action has once more confirmed that we are on the right side of the trend and our Buy signal consequently remains active.

Trend Timing School

How our Model and single signal capture multiple indices

Now that we have officially expanded our service and Web site to the Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 and S&P 500 indices, a number of subscribers are wondering why we don't have one signal per index and whether such an approach could not yield better results. How can our Model and single signal capture multiple indices?

The answer is in fact a crucial Trend Timing foundation, which is to follow the broad market trend, knowing that markets are highly correlated over extended periods of time.
During the last couple of years we have conducted extensive research to apply the same general approach our model uses to extract the market trend from the Nasdaq Composite Index price and volume action to other indices. Despite all efforts to optimize individual indicators to individual indices, nothing works as well as our current Model and signal. Other market indices just simply have too much "noise", or are not volatile enough to accurately convey the market trend turning points in a timely fashion. For example, because S&P 500 movements are rather slow and tame compared to the Nasdaq Composite, it is more difficult to use to detect a true trend change early enough and to eliminate false signals.

A number of services tout trading signals for individual indices, but they react to short term movements, and therefore involve much more frequent trading and tend to incur regular whipsaws and losing trades.

So instead, we continue to focus our Model on the longer term and use the Nasdaq Composite to detect the major trend changes in the broad market, and apply the corresponding signal to various indices. It may be surprising at first, but it works better and provides better results.

FAQ of the Week

Instead of the customary single weekly question, we will attempt to briefly address the most frequent questions received about the new expanded Web site.

Question: I cannot find the QQQQ closing price or trade history on the "Current Signal" page?
The information is still available by clicking on the link on the "Results" page. Since our subscribers utilize diverse investment vehicles that track the Nasdaq 100, we felt it was more beneficial to the majority to devote the "Current Signal" page to the indices themselves.

Question: Why are the "Current Signal" page returns now listed "Since First Live Signal (6/18/2001)"?
General feedback convinced us that reporting our performance history since we issued our first live signal is more credible and sincere than including backtested data. We have always been crystal clear as to what portion of the published results is backtested, and we greatly value our long (15 years) and unique backtesting for the validation it bestows on the Model over extensive time periods and diverse markets. All the tables and charts on the "Results" page still let you select a start date all the way back to 01/03/1989.

Question: Why does nothing happen when I click the link?
The Site Walkthrough is designed to open in a separate window and if nothing happens it probably is because you are running a pop-up blocker on your machine. Try to disable it and try again after closing all your browser windows. A pop-up blocker can also affect a number of other links on our site that open a separate window, such as the , the or the links.

Question: Why does the "My Profile" tab on the left read "Your Profile" before I click on it?
This has been reported to us by a few Internet Explorer browser users. This can happen if the browser cache still has the old "Your Profile" button memorized. All you need to do to resolve the problem is to clear your Internet Explorer cache by going to the Tools pull-down menu, then selecting Internet Options, and clicking Delete files.

Warm wishes and until next week.

The TimingCube Staff

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