There are numerous resources on the Internet which provide you with data and the ability to analyze, chart and compare the results of just about any investment, and to track your portfolio. The problem is that these results are Buy and Hold, and in order to find out what the returns would have been when traded according to the TimingCube signal and strategies, one had to take on some rather tedious calculations. As always at TimingCube, we aim to please, and from now on we will do all the heavy computations for you instantly, more or less.

In addition to the three primary indices we track, the Nasdaq 100 , Russell 2000 and S&P 500 plus the QQQQ , you now have the ability to obtain all the results with the signal applied to a stock, ETF, mutual fund, or even a pair of bull/bear mutual funds of your choice. The field of exploration is immense. In addition to how well correlated a given investment or index is today, how it changes over time is another dimension of interest. There must be an endless number of ways to use these resources but as an introduction we offer some of the more useful strategies, tips and hints that we came across. May they inspire many more!

Note of caution. Please understand that risk increases when you stray too far from the rich diversification offered by our three core index ETFs, as you do when selecting narrow sector funds or even individual stocks. Besides monitoring, we recommend this tool be used to strengthen and diversify your portfolio, not to find the one horse that will beat them all. Remember Enron.

Finding which indices, ETFs, mutual funds or stocks have historically outperformed the QQQQ. The Performance by individual security or index section of the "Results" page lets you enter the ticker of your choice and get quasi-instantaneous results, over our entire live and backtested history (as long as the selected security has history going that far back). Note that when you enter a mutual fund ticker, only the Long Only strategies are displayed (since you cannot short a mutual fund). Also, if you type in the ticker of a bear mutual fund which gains when the index is falling, you will find out that they are about the worst choices for Long Only strategies.

Finding which pairs of bull/bear mutual funds have historically performed best. Unlike a stock or ETF which you buy or short depending on the signal, with mutual funds you have to buy one fund during a Buy signal and buy another one during a Sell signal. Since the number of permutations between strategies, index, leverage level, and family of funds is almost endless, the shear amount of computation has discouraged curious souls. With the "Performance by Bull/Bear mutual funds" section, all these combinations can be tested handily. Remember that exchange orders are only available within the same mutual fund family. Otherwise you end up losing a day because of the split selling and buying orders.

Some of the best finds. As we pointed out last week, one of the indices that exhibited the best correlation during 2004 when viewing the TimingCube Chart is Japan Nikkei index. The signals uncannily arrived nearly at the tops and bottoms. Since the Japanese market had very low volatility, even when compared to the U.S., the actual gains realized by the Nikkei were not as high, in absolute terms, as the QQQQ. Handily beating the QQQQ in recent years is the Merrill Lynch Internet HOLDRs Trust (ticker: HHH ). However, the hands down champion so far is the FTSE TECHMARK index, which is the index of the 100 top technology stocks on the London stock exchange: it managed to gain 710% since our first live trade on June 18, 2001. In comparison the QQQQ did 250%. The only bad news is that we have not yet found the ETF which tracks the TECHMARK!

Alternating risk and security on Buy and Sell signals. An example of a fairly popular strategy would be, during a Buy signal, to select aggressive stocks or ETFs, maybe even with some margin, while during Sell signals a conservative inverse mutual fund would be preferred. These types of combinations can be explored with specific tickers in the "Performance by individual security or index" section on the "Results" page.

Finding the best non-listed retirement plan mutual fund. Many with company sponsored retirement plans such as 401(k) or SEP have a very small number of investment choices. Sometimes the company's own stock is available as an investment plus a handful of more of less obscure mutual funds, frequently from the plan administrator's own basket. Not having access to either ETFs or the ProFunds/Rydex bull/bear mutual funds we report on makes one wonder if the Model would work with the retirement plan funds. There is now an easy answer to the question, for the funds that are publicly listed and traded anyways (for other mutual funds not traded on exchanges and without tickers, see the "Finding the right retirement plan mutual fund" tip below).

Finding a ticker symbol. This is for the most part easy and quick. For simplicity we use the same ticker symbols as Yahoo! Finance. If you do not know the ticker for a stock ETF or mutual fund you can use the Ticker Lookup link which is next to the ticker functions. This takes you to Yahoo!'s Symbol Lookup function. It does not work for indices. To find many index tickers, follow the U.S. Indices and World Indices links about in the middle of the Yahoo! Finance home page.

Finding the right retirement plan mutual fund. Many company retirement plans only offer funds that are not traded on public exchanges and therefore have no ticker and no available historical data. The tool does not help here directly. But what we can see is that you probably have a "Small Cap Growth" and "Mid Cap Growth" type of fund, which are probably well correlated with the Russell 2000 index, as well as the "Large Cap Growth" fund that may track the S&P 500. What you could do is ask your plan administrator which of these funds track which market index. You can also ask what are the publicly offered funds that are close to yours and check their returns with their tickers.

Finding the open price on the Trade Date. A handy feature of the TimingCube Chart is the detailed information available for every trade. If you move your pointer over any of the signals shown in the Charts, a box with information about the signal will appear. Of particular importance, the Trade Date and the opening price on the Trade Date.

Many of us like to build and use our own spreadsheets to track the performance of our favorite investments, but recently some have been noticing a difference between the TimingCube returns for QQQQ and their own calculations.

The explanation has to do with the cash dividend which we discussed in the December 17, 2004 "FAQ of the week". Since the date it was applied, 12/17/2004, the historic QQQQ prices need to be adjusted to factor in the cash dividend. The dividend amounted to $0.379 per share and corresponds to a multiplier of 0.9905 for any data prior to 12/17/2004. This all sounds much too complicated but a practical example might shed some light on the answer.

Looking at the QQQQ performance for the current signal, the Buy issued after the close on 10/27/2004, we need to divide the last closing price we have by the opening price on 10/28/2004. If, like many do, you use Yahoo! Finance for your historical prices, you have the luxury of receiving closing prices that are adjusted for splits and dividends. Not so for the opening prices! In order to calculate the adjusted price, simply multiply the opening price listed for 10/28/2004 ($36.68) by 0.9905.

$36.68 x 0.9905 = $36.33

Using this same price adjustment on all data prior to 12/17/2004 will bring your returns back in line with ours.

Warm wishes and until next week.

The TimingCube Staff