Signal Type	Trade Date	Index	Return since issued
		Nasdaq 100
		Russell 2000
		S&P 500

Market Update

Broad market indexes did not move much over the 5-day span as they consolidated the gains they had posted last week following the Fed's decision to cut interest rates for the first time in over 4 years. The major indexes moved modestly lower on light trade Monday before turning around the next day following the lead of technology stocks. Good news from GM helped the market move higher again Wednesday: GM shares jumped 9% after the automaker announced that it had reached an agreement with the UAW, therefore ending a 2-day strike. Stocks were able to tack on more gains Thursday before posting mild losses during the last session of the week. Friday saw higher trading volume as the day marked the end of the third quarter, with many fund managers engaging in last-minute window dressing. On the economic front, the Commerce Department announced Friday that the core PCE deflator only increased by a modest 0.1% in August, showing that inflation has moderated. Since this indicator is supposedly the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, it should give the Central Bank more room for additional rate cuts.

With tech stocks outperforming, the Nasdaq 100 gained 2.03% on the week. The S&P 500 was basically flat while the Russell 2000 lost 0.94%. All three indexes remain above both their 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs).

For its part, our World Index Ranking portfolio did better than its US counterparts this week with a 2.96% gain. The portfolio consists of the 5 top-ranked world indexes as of September 14, which marked the beginning of the current 4-week holding period.

Our current Buy signal remains in effect.

Trend Timing School

Trend Timing School Curriculum

One of the strengths and attractions of Trend Timing is its simplicity. It does not require a lot of prior investing knowledge and experience, and most subscribers jump right in after perusing the "Model" and "Strategies" pages, if that much. Many subscribe for the very reason that they do not have to spend a lot of time learning and keeping up with the stock market and its intricacies. On the other hand, we found many other subscribers who, while appreciating the "low maintenance" style of the service, have a thirst for investing knowledge and understanding. It is for them that we began publishing our Trend Timing School articles on a weekly basis.

By now we have accumulated a fairly important body of knowledge. Since we started publishing our Weekly Updates in 2003, there have been well over 200 Trend Timing School articles written, together with a corresponding number of FAQ of the Week answers. All of these articles are neatly indexed by date and subject on the "Weekly Updates" page and a keyword search on the index page will frequently identify the relevant articles. The often overlooked "Glossary" also provides links to specific topics. Still, the sheer size of the article archive can be daunting, especially for new subscribers.

Since we do not really expect anyone to read through all past articles, we created this Trend Timing School Curriculum to provide a much more focused and structured plan of study. We grouped three dozen of the most relevant and salient pieces into three categories of "Trend Timing", "The Stock Market" and "Investing".

No pressure, you can do this at your own pace and there will be no test from us. Of course the markets will continue to test us relentlessly in the months and years to come, and it is precisely for these challenges that we want to be as prepared and knowledgeable as we can be. Be sure to bookmark this page for future reference.

Trend Timing The Trend Timing investment philosophy and model, and how it compares with other approaches and indicators Trend Timing revisited The Trend The market data that feeds our Model About the TimingCube Model World Index Ranking The strategies The best contrary indicator Trend Timing compared to Buy and Hold Institutional investors speak volume Qualitative versus quantitative The correlation coefficient Split personality

The Stock Market   Key markets characteristics, history and behavior, and the mysterious ways in which they move  Pullbacks and corrections The Trend is contagious The rise of emerging markets Cyclical and secular bear markets The psychology of bull and bear markets Interest rates and the stock market Inflation Bull markets The end of the U.S. dollar era Market corrections

Investing   Investment vehicles and the basic "how to" techniques to implement Trend Timing strategies  Investment vehicles The ABC's of ETFs ETF Review Short selling explained Margin trading explained Dollar Cost Averaging explained Market and limit orders Risk/reward management Implementing the TimingCube strategies with options Dollar proofing your portfolio Broker update

FAQ of the Week

Question: Should I rebalance my portfolio to equal size positions?

With the World Index Ranking system we recommend investing in the 5 ETFs corresponding to the Top 5 world indexes, and when you get started this means applying 1/5^th (20%) of the amount set aside for this investment strategy to each of the 5 positions. Due to different returns for the respective markets the 5 positions will grow at different rates, and when time comes to rebalance to the latest Top 5, you may wonder if it is important to also rebalance to equal size positions.

For the results we track and report on our Web site to be easily understandable and verifiable, our calculations always start a new 4 week period with equal size positions. For the investor however, there is no need to match position sizes every rebalancing cycle. Since we enjoy a low periodic turnover of only 20% (meaning that on average only one of the 5 positions changes every 4 weeks), we favor less trading rather than more. Only when positions really become too dissimilar is there a need to equalize position sizes. Where you draw the line is a personal decision each of us has to make. It is ultimately a tradeoff between maximizing returns and lowering risk through diversification. The whole premise of the momentum based World Index Ranking system is to cut the weaker positions and letting the winners run. Trouble is that once your winning position grows to the point where instead of representing the nominal 20% of your portfolio it becomes 40%, 50% or more, the concentration in one market becomes more exposure than reason would dictate.

Warm wishes and until next week.

The TimingCube Staff